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Any economic analyst; through reviewing the Generally Budget and its associated balance sheets of the financial year 1998; may easily consider the steps achieved by the Yemeni economy during that last 3 years. The positive move within the economic "path" had really started since mid 1994, thus showing progressive development of Yemen's economy.
During such short period, the economic policies succeeded in stopping the deterioration of the economy which occurred in a pattern of continued high ratios during May 1990-July 1994. This is shown through reduction of the inflation average ratios from more than 100% to a securable rate not above 7% for the year 1997. Depreciation in value of the rial and increase of the exchange rate were also stopped around 130/= rials for every dollar, instead of reaching around the value of 170/= rials.
The economic policies also succeeded in fixation of the prices to the levels convenient for the Yemeni families to bear, whereas the unstable fluctuations of price levels of the products and services had previously caused their worries. Again, such policies succeeded in creating proportional adjustments in the balance of trade and balance of payments, as well as, causing some depreciation of the deficit shown by the general budgets of the state. This had been achieved through minimizing the public expenditures, and increasing the volume of exports, which mainly consisted of the crude oil and fishery wealth. Perhaps, more important has been the fact that the average ratios of GDP jumped from negatives to positives. It now stands at 7% only.
Upon reviewing the government's budget of 1998, one may extract certain points the most important of which is that the Yemeni economy over-passed the critical stage and proceeds gradually to the stage of security/ safety, with no fluctuation features.
The first remark is that upon execution, there shall be expected a surplus in the current economic activity, except in the item "Capital Expenditure", due to the direction of the economy towards the investments. In fact, this could be noted point number (2), where one may view that the funds allocated for "development" amounts 56,578 billion rials. This represents an increase from last year's figure by the ratio 43.9%. At the same time, the funds allocated for "operating expenses" increase in 1998 by 20% ratio than that of 1997.
The figures of 1998 budget confirm that the state shall continue is obligations of spending on the "public services". Both funds allocated for the "education" and "public health" sectors; and as compared to the budget figures of 1997; have increased in ratios of 17% and 30% respectively.
Through analysis of the budget's figures of 1998, one may derive the following facts:-
1- The allocated funds (and resources) of the investment program for the year 1998 amount 108.2 billion rials. It represents a proportional increase of 133% as compared to the figures of 1997.
2- The allocated funds of social security net-work have raised in the year 1998 to 30 billion rials.
3- The expected increase in the public revenues is estimated 35361 billion rials, and represents in comparison with that of 1997 a proportional increase of 11.7%.
4- The deficit in the budget of 1998 came only 7.8% and amounts 13471 billion rials, whereas in the year 1997 it amounted 25373 billion rials. This means that the budget's deficit has been reduced by about 4%.
5- The "government subsidies" on non-oil products (maize and wheat) and oil and gas by -products have been provided through allocating the total amount 5056 billion rials. This is to be seen from the planned figures in the budget of 1998. The government has thus continued to protect the fixed-income communities.
6- The amount 6600 billion rials is mentioned in the budget of 1998 to represent the funds allocated by the government for the public service's remuneration. These constitute the quarterly and annual bonus-scheme increase and the one allocated for the promotions of government staff.
7- The budget of 1998 also included the provision of 25570 new posts and occupations in both the public and mix-sectors.
Thus, the budget has achieved bringing the linkage between the economic objectives, as planned in the "Administrative & Financial" Program, and those related to the general financial policies. In concluding these facts, it is true to indicate that due to the financial policies adopted by the government the average inflation ratio retarded from 75% in 1994 to 55% in 1995. Then it came to 29% in 1996, but finally dropped to 7.3% in 1997. Similarly, the bank's interest rate was dropped from 23% in 1994 to approximately 11% during the current second quarter of 1998.
Even in the industrial sectors, the crude oil returns show an increase in value by 2052 billion rials in the budget of 1998 as compared to 190 billion rials achieved in 1997. Alternatively, the expenditures on "defense" have been lowered by about 2,2%, but the funds allocated for "education" and "health" show proportional increases of 16% and 28% respectively.
___________________________________ Source: Economic issue of Saba News Agency Issue No. 101 of 15/1/98
Date: 17 May 2007
Remote Name: 184.108.40.206
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